牛道配资万亿巨头重磅发声！富兰克林邓普顿：全球机构和高净值个人都在重估中国机会

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　　来源：中国基金报

　　【导读】富兰克林邓普顿亚太CEO Tariq Ahmad: 全球机构和高净值个人都在重估中国机会

　　Franklin Templeton’s Tariq Ahmad: Global Institutions and Wealth Clients Are Reassessing China Opportunities

　　中国基金报记者吴娟娟

　　日前，富兰克林邓普顿亚太CEO Tariq Ahmad在接受本报独家专访时表示，全球投资者对中国的兴趣上升。他们需超越房地产行业的压力，看到广阔的中国机遇。Tariq Ahmad认为中国的部分企业具有全球竞争力。与华尔街的一般看法不同，富兰克林邓普顿认为关税对美国的通胀影响或相对温和。

　　在全球大型资产管理机构中，富兰克林邓普顿拥有全球最知名的新兴市场投资团队之一。Tariq Ahmad说，“几乎100%地肯定，新兴市场迎来了拐点。”全球投资者对新兴市场的关注增加，弱美元将支撑投资者持续向新兴市场倾斜。

　　富兰克林邓普顿拥有逾75年的历史，截至2025年6月底，富兰克林邓普顿的资产管理规模约1.6万亿美元。

　　富兰克林邓普顿自二十多年前起已投资中国，在麦朴思博士的带领下，分别在香港及上海设立研究办事处。于2004年与国海证券股份有限公司共同出资组建国海富兰克林基金管理有限公司，并于2007年入股中国人寿资产管理（香港）有限公司，合组联营公司中国人寿富兰克林资产管理有限公司。2016年，富兰克林邓普顿在上海设立外商独资企业（WFOE）。

　　截至目前，富兰克林邓普顿在中国境内的业务，涵盖机构性客户、主权财富基金、合资格境外机构投资者（QFII）及私募股权，并与多家合资格境内机构投资者（QDII）合作。

　　Global investors institution and high net worth individual alike, are showing renewed interest in Chinese markets despite ongoing real estate sector challenges, according to Franklin Templeton Asia-Pacific CEO Tariq Ahmad. In an exclusive interview with China Fund News, Ahmad urged investors to look beyond current property market pressure to identify broad investment opportunities across China's economy.

　　Tariq Ahmad believes that some Chinese companies have global competitiveness that transcends national borders. Regarding U.S. tariffs, contrary to the consensus view on Wall Street, Franklin Templeton believes that most likely tariffs’impact on U.S. inflation will be relatively.

　　Among global large asset management institutions, Franklin Templeton has one of the most renowned emerging market investment teams. Tariq Ahmad said, " for 100%， emerging markets have reached a turning point." Global investors' attention to emerging markets is increasing, and a weak dollar will support investors'tilt toward emerging markets.

　　Franklin Templeton has a 75-year history, and as of the end of June 2025, Franklin Templeton's assets under management are approximately $1.6 trillion.

　　Franklin Templeton has been investing in China for more than twenty years. Under the leadership of Dr. Mark Mobius, it established research offices in Hong Kong and Shanghai. In 2004, it jointly invested with Guohai Securities Co., Ltd. to establish Guohai Franklin Fund Management Co., Ltd., and in 2007, it acquired a stake in China Life Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited to form the joint venture China Life Franklin Asset Management Limited.

　　Franklin Templeton's business in mainland China covers institutional clients, sovereign wealth funds, Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) and private equity, and cooperates with multiple Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII).

　　全球机构和高净值个人都在评估中国的机会

　　Global institutions and high-net-worth individuals areevaluating opportunities in China

　　中国基金报：关税对美国通胀的影响何时显现？

　　Tariq Ahmad：美国公司、进口商及出口商或吸收部分成本，但关税成本最终很可能由消费者承担。富兰克林邓普顿智库估算15%有效关税税率的影响相当于对美国全国征收3%的消费税。

　　预计关税不会显著抑制美国消费者支出。估算显示，关税对GDP影响有限。预计明年下半年美国GDP增速或小幅降至1%，之后回归接近2%的水平。成本上升引发通胀担忧，但15%的关税或仅推升通胀约1.5%，幅度较小。

　　China Fund News: When will the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation become apparent?

　　Tariq Ahmad: U.S. companies, importers, and exporters may absorb some cost, but tariff cost will most likely ultimately be borne by consumers. Franklin Templeton Institute estimates that the impact of a 15% effective tariff rate is equivalent to imposing a 3% national consumption tax.

　　Tariffs are not expected to significantly suppress U.S. consumer spending. Calculations show that tariffs have a limited impact on GDP. It is expected that GDP growth may decline slightly to 1% in the second half of next year, before returning to near 2% levels. Rising costs naturally raise inflation concerns, but an average 15% tariff would only push inflation up by about 1.5%, a relatively moderate increase.

　　中国基金报：近期，全球投资者对中国市场的态度有何变化？

　　Tariq Ahmad：全球投资者对中国市场兴趣回升，机构及财富管理客户（高净值个人）皆在评估中国的机会。全球投资者对中国市场核心关注问题包括：政府经济刺激措施以提振经济与信心，后续政策力度。创新正成为经济增长驱动力，尤见于技术及人工智能领域，中国于AI领域角色重要。监管机构间协调性增强，为国内经济发展提供支持性政策环境。

　　投资者需将目光超越房地产市场短期困境。建议以长远眼光审视（宏观周期或需三至五年完成），中国正经历长期结构性转型以实现经济再平衡，

　　采用5S框架分析中国投资机会：供应链（Supply Chain）：如电池制造商。可持续性（Sustainability）：如电动汽车、氢能发电机及长江电力等公司。服务（Services）：如携程等旅游服务平台。系统（Systems）：如阿里巴巴在云基础设施等布局。储蓄（Savings）：如招商银行等金融机构。

　　中国宏观经济周期性上行带来更具吸引力的投资空间。长期看，众多中国企业具备强劲基本面与盈利潜力，影响力超越国界。

　　China Fund News: How have global investors' attitudes toward the Chinese market changed recently?

　　Tariq Ahmad:Global investors' interest in the Chinese market is recovering, with both institutional and wealth management clients (high-net-worth individuals) evaluating opportunities in China. Global investors' core concerns about the Chinese market include government economic stimulus measures to boost the economy and confidence, as well as the strength of subsequent policies. Innovation is becoming a driver of economic growth, particularly evident in the technology and artificial intelligence sectors, with China playing an important role in the AI field. Enhanced coordination among regulatory agencies is providing a supportive policy environment for domestic economic development.

　　Investors need to look beyond the short-term difficulties in the real estate market. I recommend taking a long-term view (macro cycles may take three to five years to complete), as China is undergoing long-term structural transformation to achieve economic rebalancing.

　　Using a 5S framework to analyze Chinese investment opportunities: Supply Chain - such as battery manufacturers; Sustainability - such as electric vehicles, hydrogen power generators, and companies like Yangtze Power; Services - such as travel service platforms like Ctrip; Systems - such as Alibaba's deployment in cloud infrastructure; Savings - such as financial institutions like China Merchants Bank.

　　China's macroeconomic cyclical upturn creates more attractive investment opportunities. In the long term, many Chinese companies have strong fundamentals and profit potential, with influence that transcends national borders.

　　中国基金报：投资者关注中国市场的哪些问题？

　　Tariq Ahmad：投资者习惯中国高速增长，然而，近年经济增速放缓，增长动力由投资向消费转移。房地产市场疲软及地缘政治因素等是海外投资者需适应的新常态。

　　当前投资者关注焦点在于消费者情绪，担忧的问题包括地缘政治及经济放缓风险。

　　富兰克林邓普顿希望帮助投资者穿透噪音，理解市场真实信号。资管机构组织实地考察，帮助投资者了解企业运营与结构性故事（如深圳地区具有创新活力的企业），深化对中国长期机遇的认知。

　　中国经济增长对全球依然至关重要。众多亚洲经济体依赖中国。中国消费与进口增长将惠及澳大利亚等大宗商品生产国。

　　China Fund News: What concerns do global investors have regarding the Chinese market?

　　Tariq Ahmad:Investors were once accustomed to China's high-speed growth, but in recent years, economic growth has slowed, with growth momentum shifting from investment to consumption. The weak real estate market and geopolitical factors represent part of the new normal that overseas investors are adapting to.

　　Investors are currently focused on consumer sentiment. Their primary concerns include geopolitical risks and economic slowdown risks.

　　Franklin Templeton's core objective is to help investors see through market noise and understand genuine market signals. Organizing field visits helps them understand corporate operations and structural narratives—such as the innovative and dynamic companies in the Shenzhen area—thereby deepening their understanding of China's long-term opportunities.

　　China's economic growth remains crucial to the global economy. Many Asian economies are highly dependent on China, and its consumption and import growth will also benefit commodity-producing countries such as Australia.

　　亚太市场的财富增长为全球资产管理机构带来机遇

　　Wealth Growth in Asia-Pacific Markets Brings Opportunities for Global Institutions

　　中国基金报：如何看待亚太市场的机遇？牛道配资

　　Tariq Ahmad：亚太机遇可从两方面理解：人口结构与财富增长。

　　区域内财富增长振奋人心：中国、印度等大型经济体产生的财富，加之流入中国香港、新加坡的国际资本，带来机遇。中国的跨境投资通道，如QDII以及沪深港通渠道，亦为财富管理开辟新路径。

　　人口结构方面：中国、日本、韩国等面临不同程度的老龄化挑战，而其他国家则无此问题，这就需要基金公司提供高度差异化投资解决方案。日本呈现增长机遇，其为长期低通胀、高储蓄市场，但伴随刺激政策出台，利率已上升。政府寻求创新与竞争，推出新储蓄项目并鼓励外资进入金融市场，令日股估值具吸引力，为投资者提供机会。

　　China Fund News: How do you view opportunities in the Asia-Pacific market?

　　Tariq Ahmad:Asia-Pacific opportunities can be understood from two perspectives: demographic structure and wealth growth.

　　Wealth growth in the region is encouraging. Domestic wealth generated by large economies such as China and India, combined with international capital flowing into Hong Kong and Singapore, creates abundant opportunities. China's cross-border investment channels, such as QDII and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, also open new pathways for wealth management.

　　The Asia-Pacific demographic structure is unique. China, Japan, South Korea, and other countries face varying degrees of aging challenges, while other nations in the region do not face this issue, requiring highly differentiated investment solutions.

　　Japan presents particularly interesting growth opportunities. It has long been a low-inflation, high-savings market, but with the introduction of stimulus policies, interest rates have risen. The government is seeking innovation and competition by launching new savings programs and encouraging foreign investment in financial markets, making Japanese stock valuations extremely attractive and providing significant growth opportunities for investors.

　　亚太地区高净值对收益的需求强劲

　　Strong Demand for Income Among High-Net-Worth Individuals in Asia-Pacific

　　中国基金报：近年来，大型机构投资者在资产配置方面发生了哪些变化？

　　Tariq Ahmad：利率环境、地缘政治等因素影响全球投资市场。亚太地区机构投资者及大型资产所有者的投资组合管理方式发生转变。

　　全组合方法（total portfolio approach）越来越受重视。该方法在构建组合时，更重视集中度、相关性及气候风险，致力于构建统一的投资组合。

　　固定收益领域：零利率时代结束后，全球固定收益市场迎来良好配置时机。具体而言，目前，美国企业信贷具备吸引力，利差水平处于合理区间。股票领域：众多机构投资者引入系统性股票等新理念，以更系统化捕捉因子收益，规避单一风格（价值型或成长型）偏见。另类投资领域：具流动性的另类投资愈发受到重视。例如，2025年，对冲基金策略重获青睐。伴随市场波动性上升，宏观、系统性股票或股票多空等对冲基金策略的阿尔法机会相应增加，吸引更多资本流入。非公开市场资产领域：私募股权、房地产及私募信贷领域投资者兴趣持续高企。房地产领域：投资者兴趣回归，正于“多户住宅”“欧洲物流”及“美国仓库”等细分领域选择性寻找机会。

　　整体而言，机构投资者丰富工具包，部分主权财富基金行动迅速。

　　China Fund News: In recent years, what changes have occurred in asset allocation among large institutional investors?

　　Tariq Ahmad:Factors such as the interest rate environment and geopolitics have profoundly impacted global investment markets. The portfolio management approaches of institutional investors and large asset owners in the Asia-Pacific region have also undergone significant transformation.

　　The total portfolio approach is receiving increasing attention. This method places greater emphasis on concentration, correlation, and climate risk when constructing portfolios, with a commitment to building unified investment portfolios.

　　In terms of asset classes:

　　Fixed Income: Following the end of the zero interest rate era, global fixed income markets present attractive allocation opportunities. Specifically, U.S. corporate credit is currently appealing, with spread levels within reasonable ranges.

　　Equities: Many institutional investors are introducing new concepts such as systematic equity to capture factor returns more systematically and avoid single-style biases (value or growth).

　　Liquid Alternative Investments: These are receiving increasing attention. For example, in 2025, hedge fund strategies have regained favor. As market volatility rises, alpha opportunities in hedge fund strategies such as macro, systematic equity, and equity long-short have correspondingly increased, attracting greater capital inflows.

　　Private Market Assets: Investor interest remains high in private equity, real estate, and private credit. In real estate, investor interest is returning, with selective opportunity-seeking in segments such as multifamily residential, European logistics, and U.S. warehouses.

　　Overall, institutional investors are further enhancing their investment toolkits, with some sovereign wealth funds acting particularly swiftly.

　　中国基金报：亚太地区财富管理的客户需求发生了哪些变化？

　　Tariq Ahmad：收益是高净值客户的核心驱动因素。构建产生稳定收益的策略与解决方案是财富管理机构推出产品的基础。

　　收益型产品方面，全球固定收益资产是投资者最为关注的类别之一。

　　固定收益外，多资产及高股息类解决方案为客户提供多元化收益来源。多资产策略虽可能牺牲部分超额收益（Alpha），但有助于改善组合的下行风险管理。过去五年间，在亚太地区财富管理领域，美国多资产策略获成功，其在下行风险管理及总回报方面具备优势。

　　主题投资是另一趋势。投资者关注的主题涵盖技术、医疗保健、黄金及贵金属等多个领域，他们捕捉全球大趋势的需求日益增长。

　　China Fund News: What changes have occurred in client demand for wealth management in the Asia-Pacific region?

　　Tariq Ahmad:Incomeis the core driving factor for high-net-worth clients. Therefore, constructing strategies and solutions that can generate stable returns has always been the foundation for wealth management institutions when launching products to the market.

　　In terms of income-generating products, global fixed income assets are the category on which investors focus first.

　　Beyond fixed income, multi-asset and high dividend solutions provide clients with diversified income sources. While multi-asset strategies may sacrifice some alpha, they can effectively improve downside performance. Over the past five years, U.S. multi-asset strategies have achieved significant success in the Asia-Pacific wealth management sector, demonstrating advantages in downside risk management and capturing total returns.

　　Thematic investing is another important trend. Themes that investors focus on span multiple areas, including technology, healthcare, and gold and precious metals, with growing demand for capturing opportunities brought by global megatrends.

　　几乎100%确定，新兴市场拐点已到

　　For 100%, an Inflection Point for Emerging Markets Has Arrived

　　中国基金报：欧洲是否将继续受益于全球投资者降低美国资产配置？

　　Tariq Ahmad：在当前市场周期及地缘政治环境下，部分区域投资者正降低美国市场配置。关键原因如下：

　　估值疑虑可能触发配置框架调整，促使投资者转向其他市场。

　　全球地缘政治局势为投资者考虑其他市场的催化剂。第三，欧洲市场正采取刺激经济措施（如调整政策利率），为投资者重新关注欧洲市场提供契机。基于上述因素，部分资金流向欧洲。

　　有人认为欧洲是“美国例外主义减弱”叙事主要受益者，但变化属边际调整且难以精确量化。截至目前，确有数据显示，部分机构投资者对美国市场配置有所减少，对欧洲市场（含固定收益领域）的兴趣边际上增加。例如，部分机构对欧洲CLO（抵押贷款债务凭证）的兴趣显著上升。

　　不过，并非所有机构投资者都在降低对美国配置，部分市场对美国配置反而增加。相关投资者或未充分受益于美国市场前期强劲表现，这部分投资者增配“美国市场”。

　　China Fund News: Is Europe continuing to benefit from global investors reducing their U.S. asset allocation?

　　Tariq Ahmad: In the current market cycle and geopolitical environment, some regional investors are reducing their U.S. market allocation. The key reasons are as follows:

　　Valuation factors: Valuation concerns may trigger adjustments to allocation frameworks, prompting investors to turn to other potential areas.

　　Geopolitical factors: Global geopolitical developments create new market catalysts. Policy factors：European markets are implementing economic stimulus measures (such as adjusting policy rates), providing opportunities for investors to refocus on European markets. As a result, some funds are flowing to Europe.

　　Some believe that Europe is the main beneficiary of the "weakening U.S. exceptionalism" narrative. In this regard, I believe the changes represent marginal adjustments and are difficult to quantify precisely. To date, there is indeed data showing that some institutional investors have reduced their U.S. market allocation somewhat, with marginally increased interest in European markets (including fixed income). For example, some institutions have shown significantly increased interest in European CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations).

　　However, not all institutional investors are reducing their U.S. allocation. Some markets are actually increasing their U.S. allocation. These investors may not have fully benefited from the strong previous performance of U.S. markets. This group of investors is increasing their allocation to U.S. markets.

　　中国基金报：美元走势是否将继续支持新兴市场？

　　Tariq Ahmad：若美元继续走弱或企稳，部分新兴市场国家会迎来机会。

　　例如，多个经济体实施了较为克制的货币政策，有效控制了通胀，加之基础设施等领域国内部署增强“韧性”，为投资者重新审视新兴市场资产类别提供契机。

　　新兴市场方面，马来西亚与印度尼西亚等地区结构性改革值得关注。印度市场虽前期累计显著涨幅，但部分领域仍有机会。

　　全球新兴市场视角下，投资者正重新关注中国。利好会惠及中国之外的市场，例如对中国依赖性更强的经济体。美元走弱通常伴随商品价格上涨及出口增加。此外，略具吸引力的实际收益率亦提供投资窗口。若美元企稳或略有下行，将利好部分国家货币及市场表现。

　　China Fund News: Will the dollar continue to support emerging markets?

　　Tariq Ahmad:If the U.S. dollar weakens or stabilizes in the future, some emerging market countries will benefit from new opportunities.

　　For example, multiple economies have implemented restrained monetary policies, effectively controlling inflation, and domestic investment in areas such as infrastructure has enhanced resilience, providing opportunities for investors to re-examine emerging market asset classes.

　　Regarding emerging markets, structural reforms in regions such as Malaysia and Indonesia are worth noting. Although the Indian market has accumulated significant gains in the early stages, opportunities still exist in some sectors.

　　From a global emerging markets perspective, investors are refocusing on China. The positive effects may even benefit markets outside China, particularly economies with stronger dependence on China. A weakening dollar is typically accompanied by rising commodity prices and increased exports. Additionally, moderately attractive real yields also provide investment opportunities. If the dollar remains stable or declines slightly, it will benefit the currencies and market performance of these countries.

　　中国基金报：新兴市场投资是否迎来了真正的“拐点”？

　　Tariq Ahmad：几乎100%确定，新兴市场的拐点已到。

　　新兴市场作为整体资产类别纳入全球投资组合，有助于构建更具韧性的组合，在当前投资者重新反思组合平衡时，新兴市场的吸引力大幅提升。

　　过去五年间，市场经历变迁。货币政策周期是关键因素：长期近零利率结束，利率正常化回归。

　　一方面，利率上调令众多投资者措手不及。他们习惯于低利率环境中轻松获取超额收益（alpha），过度暴露于低质量解决方案中。当利率快速大幅上调时，多数投资者并未做好准备，以应对资本损失。

　　另一方面，传统“60/40”组合（60%股票，40%债券）一度有效。但当前非公开市场资产规模越来越大，迫使投资者重构组合。这需要时间，但更具洞察力者已开始行动。

　　此外，地缘政治使投资者更具防御性。关税、贸易战、通胀担忧及利率上行加剧市场复杂性。

　　虽因缺乏历史参照，致市场再平衡迟于预期，但当前已有诸多催化剂推动投资者将眼光从美国市场向外扩展，以广阔视角审视全球。

　　几乎100%确定，我们处于新兴市场的拐点。全球化视野对构建多元化组合及创造更优风险缓释工具至关重要。对美国资产的偏好虽根深蒂固（因其为全球最大资本市场，主导众多指数，影响力巨大），然所有市场皆具相对性。

　　China Fund News: Has emerging market investment truly reached a "turning point"?

　　Tariq Ahmad:The turning point for emerging markets has definitely arrived.

　　Incorporating emerging markets as an overall asset class into global portfolios helps build more resilient portfolios. As investors currently rethink portfolio balance, the attractiveness of emerging markets has significantly increased.

　　Over the past five years, markets have experienced major changes. Monetary policy cycles are a key factor: the end of long-term near-zero interest rates and the return to interest rate normalization.

　　On one hand, interest rate increases caught many investors off guard. They were accustomed to easily capturing alpha in low interest rate environments and were overexposed to low-quality solutions. When interest rates rose rapidly and significantly, most investors were unprepared to cope with the resulting capital losses.

　　On the other hand, the traditional "60/40" portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) was once effective. However, as private market assets become increasingly prominent, this forces investors to reconstruct their portfolios. This takes time, but more insightful investors have already begun taking action.

　　Additionally, geopolitics has made investors more defensive. Tariffs, trade wars, inflation concerns, and rising interest rates have intensified market complexity.

　　Although market rebalancing has been slower than expected due to a lack of historical precedent, there are now many catalysts driving portfolio expansion beyond U.S. markets. Now more than ever, we need to examine the world with a global perspective.

　　We are absolutely at the turning point for emerging markets. A global perspective is crucial for building diversified portfolios and creating better risk mitigation tools. Although the preference for U.S. assets is deeply rooted (as it is the world's largest capital market, dominates many indices, and has enormous influence), all markets are relative.

　　投资者需超越美股七巨头，发掘未来机遇

　　Investors Need to Look Beyond the Magnificent Seven to Uncover Future Opportunities

　　中国基金报：美国科技股盈利能否支撑估值？

　　Tariq Ahmad：当前科技股估值表面偏高。以标普500指数为例，其2025年与2026年预期市盈率分别为24倍与21倍，均处高位。

　　标普500指数表现受“七巨头”权重影响。投资者需深入思考科技巨头所代表的创新浪潮及其于消费者与供应商生态系统中日益重要的角色，此创新趋势将持续发挥关键作用。

　　投资机遇正从大型股向中小型股“拓宽”。“七巨头”虽对推动估值与增长至关重要，然半导体等全球化创新核心领域亦展现广阔前景。美国政府的刺激措施、放松管制等将持续支持整体科技行业。

　　对投资者而言，仅持有或超配科技板块已不够，必须关注“七巨头”之外机会。

　　于科技领域，“主动管理”至关重要。在市场波动性或更高、流动性更强的环境中，主动管理有助于投资者动态调整组合、捕捉机遇。结合上市与非上市公司视角亦属关键，因私人公司上市周期延长，投资并与之建立联系可提供更全面机会洞察。

　　China Fund News: Can U.S. tech stock earnings support their valuations?

　　Tariq Ahmad:Current tech stock valuations appear high on the surface. Taking the S&P 500 as an example, its expected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 24x and 21x, respectively, both at elevated levels.

　　The S&P 500 is significantly influenced by the weighting of the "Magnificent Seven." Investors need to think deeply about the innovation wave represented by these tech giants and their increasingly important role in consumer and supplier ecosystems. This innovation trend will continue to play a key role.

　　Investment opportunities are "broadening" from large-cap to small- and mid-cap stocks. While the "Magnificent Seven" are crucial for driving valuations and growth, core areas of global innovation such as semiconductors also show broad prospects. U.S. government stimulus measures and deregulation will continue to support the overall tech industry.

　　For investors, merely holding or overweighting the tech sector is no longer sufficient; they must focus on opportunities beyond the "Magnificent Seven" to capture future growth potential.

　　In the tech sector, active management is crucial. In an environment with potentially higher market volatility and enhanced liquidity, active management helps investors dynamically adjust portfolios and capture opportunities. Combining perspectives of both public and private companies is also key, as the extended IPO cycle for private companies means that investing in and establishing connections with them can provide more comprehensive opportunity insights.

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